Suppose You Didn't Have to Ask All the Right Pension Questions

Think about it. Oftentimes, your consulting services are only as good as the questions you knew to ask. Suppose you didn't have to ask them.

I think back to some of my earlier days as a consultant. Leaving a meeting, one of my mentors said to me that I had answered all of the client's questions that they needed to have answered, but didn't know it. In other words, I delivered optimal consulting to my client.

In the actuarial consulting world, what plan sponsors are frequently encountering is something short of optimal consulting. We can refer to it as suboptimal consulting.

I'm not going to give away exactly what goes into suboptimal consulting. What I will do though is to tell you a little bit about it, how damaging it might be to not avoid it, that it can be identified, and what a better solution looks like.

To paraphrase the old TV show "Dragnet" -- the tales of suboptimal consulting you are about to encounter are true; the names have been changed to protect the innocent. And, by the way, the innocent are the clients. They have businesses to run. With the exception of those big enough to have full-time, in-house pension consultants, they can't be expected to know all this stuff on their own.

Surprisingly enough, National Widget Company (NWC) is in the business of manufacturing and distributing widgets. NWC currently sponsors two frozen pension plans. Their actuarial firm, Too Big For the Mid-Market (TBFM) has assigned a litany of what it views internally as mediocre consultants to NWC for the last 15 years or so. Here is some of what we know about this relationship.

• There have actually been six separate Enrolled Actuaries from TBFM assigned to NWC over the last 15 years. Only one of the six has ever met NWC management. None has worried about learning NWC's corporate goals, needs, or points of pain. All simply assumed that NWC was pretty much the same as the rest of TBFM's clients.
• The two NWC pension plans, in total, have about $100 million in plan assets.
• NWC pays TBFM about $250 thousand per year in actuarial fees.
• NWC has been laying out an average of slightly more than $100 thousand in cash every year (either to the plan or on behalf of the plan) that it didn't need to and for which there is no real benefit to the company or to plan participants. This is wasted money that could have been saved.

How do I know all of this? Suboptimal actuarial consulting can be identified. Deficiencies can be pointed out. Solutions can be found going forward. No, we can't turn back time, but we could ensure that NWC doesn't make the same mistakes over and over again. 

That NWC sponsors two frozen pension plans implies to me that they would like to terminate them. In other words, they'd like to get out of the pension business. Currently, however, there is no path to those plan terminations. They live in a world of hope and despair. That is, their strategy is that they hope that everything will go right and that these pension plans go away yet they are faced with the despair of knowing that this is not very likely to happen. 

Suppose NWC had a real strategy. Suppose that strategy included solutions with more upside potential and with less downside risk. Suppose every dollar that NWC spent on the plan was optimal. Suppose someone answered NWC's questions that their lack of pension expertise made them unequipped to ask. 

Are you responsible for a pension plan? Do you know if you are getting optimal actuarial consulting? Wouldn't you like to know? Wouldn't you like to get that optimal consulting?

Defined Benefit Supply and Demand

This should be good. This fool is writing about supply of DB plans and demand for DB plans? No, not really. But, we are going to look at a really simple way that supply and demand affect DB plans.

There are lots of DB plans out there that are frozen, be it soft or hard. Presumably, very few of them will ever be unfrozen. More likely is that plan sponsors are seeking to terminate those plans that are frozen. And, since the process for doing other than a standard termination often requires a plan sponsor to go into bankruptcy (yes, there are other ways, but that is beyond the scope of this article).

Let's look at the standard termination process in the simplest of terms. A plan has to be fully funded (including employer commitments) for the purchase of annuities, sufficient to provide all the benefits accrued and vested in the plan. Determining the level of assets to do that should be fairly simple, right?

Of course, it's simple. Presumably, you know what your funded status is on a PPA basis and you just pick up the phone and call your actuary. Actuaries have good rules of thumb for estimating everything, so your actuary will just give you a loading factor and you'll know where you stand, right?

Not so fast. Life insurance companies that are in the annuity business presumably want plan termination business. It's where they can get a large volume of business quickly. Let's consider a couple of scenarios.

Plan investments perform well, interest rates stay stable. If this is the case, then funded statuses will improve. A reasonable number of plans will be able to terminate. Insurance companies will presumably hit their goals for annuity volume.

Plan investments perform well, interest rates go up. Now, virtually everyone will think they can terminate their plans. The market will be flooded with demand for annuities. Insurers either will not be able to accommodate that much volume or will be able to create that impression.

In the second case, there is more demand, but no change in supply. I learned about this in Economics 101 (actually, it was called 14.001, and if you understand that, you'll know where I took it). Prices go up. So, your actuary's rule of thumb is going to be off by a bit ... and in the wrong direction.

We could create lots more scenarios to look at supply and demand, but this is pretty basic stuff. It's intuitive.

If you have a frozen plan and you're looking to terminate it, wouldn't you like to be able to track this loading factor or ratio of plan termination liability to PPA liability? Now you can. Contact us. Contact me.